Our current global warming target and the trajectory it places us on, towards a future ‘Hothouse Earth’, has been the subject of much recent discussion, stimulated by a paper by Will Steffen and colleagues . In many respects, the key contribution of this paper and similar work is to extend the temporal framing of our climate discussions, beyond 2100 for several centuries or more. Analogously, it is useful to extend our perspective backwards to similar time periods, to reflect on the last time Earth experienced such a Hothouse state and what it means. The Steffen et al paper allows for a variety of framings, all related to the range of natural physical, biological and chemical feedbacks that will amplify or mitigate the human intervention in climate. [Note: the authors frame their paper around the concept of a limited number of steady state scenarios/temperatures for the Earth. They then argue that aiming for 2C, potentially an unstable state, could trigger feedbacks tipping
The Cabot Institute for the Environment blog has now moved. Please visit: https://environment.blogs.bristol.ac.uk/