This week we are focussing on our Uncertain World, with a host of events and interactions to meet with new communities, think around new ideas and establish new solutions for what’s in store for us in the future. We will be posting blogs every day this week on 'Our Uncertain World'. Join the conversation with us on Twitter using the hashtag #UncertainWorld and contribute your thoughts and concerns to our (virtual) graffiti wall.
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The current rate of environmental change is unprecedented in Earth’s
history and many aspects of climate change are understood. Yet, others are not. Scientists can say with a high
confidence that temperatures and sea level rise - but continue to remain
uncertain on the scale and speed of such processes. Policy makers are now challenged
to make decisions that possess long term repercussions on the basis of
information that is deemed uncertain. However, it is not just the science that
may appear incomplete - social, economic and regulatory trends also remain unpredictable.
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| The Question Time panel, left to right: Neha Mehta (Bristol Youth Mayor); Ann Cousins (ARUP); Peter Macfadyen (Ex-Comic Relief & Frome Mayor); Leo Hickman (Carbon Brief); George Ferguson (Bristol Mayor); Andrew Kelly (Bristol Festival of Ideas). |
It is this relationship between
policy and an uncertain environment that was the focus of the Cabot Institute’s
Uncertain World: Question Time event on the 21 October 2015. Chaired by
Andrew Kelly of the Festival of Ideas, the panel included: Bristol Mayor George Ferguson; Bristol Youth Mayor Neha Mehta; Leo Hickman of the Carbon Brief;
Peter Macfadyen, formerly Mayor of Frome and a leader in the Transition Town
movement; and Ann Cousins, a Sustainability Consultant at Arup.
This
Question Time event forms part of a wider ongoing dialogue between the Cabot Institute and the Bristol
public, based on making climate-based uncertainty real, relevant and
personal for all – whilst exploring what climate change means for this city and
its inhabitants.
As George
Ferguson said in his opening statement,
"the stars do seem aligned for Bristol".
This is true – the city is European Green Capital, one of the
Rockefeller 100 Resilient Cities, and possesses a vibrant sense of community
that previous conversations have drawn upon. Recent surveys have shown
that over two thirds of the city's population are concerned with the effects of
climate change - as a local and a global issue. This provides a clear mandate
for this city, and its leaders to act.
Yet, as Ann
Cousins and Leo Hickman argued - it is not just the traditional decision makers
who must make these changes. The inspiration of figureheads cannot occur in a
vacuum. We are all leaders - be it via changing our own behaviour or by
engaging with others to change theirs.
What became particularly evident in
discussions at the public dialogue event was the focus on the local
community to meet uncertainty. It is this pooling of risk that resulted in some
of our most innovative, and important, social institutions - with the NHS
providing just one example. In the face of increased social uncertainty today,
many have independently set up food banks and swap-shops – resulting in
cooperative ventures and the circular economy becoming more commonplace. It is
no secret that the effects of climate change will be first felt at the local
level – and it is this pooling of risk that provides an important route to
adaptation.
As Frome has shown - and Peter Macfadyen voiced - the
answer lies at the community level. For meaningful change, policy must move
beyond mere nudge theory and towards tipping points. Change can only occur by
giving people agency - by inspiring them to embrace individual mitigation and
adaptation strategies. From decreased wastage to selling the car and waiting at
the bus stop. This cannot occur in isolation - it must embrace the
complexity of climate change as a social issue and link it directly to the
lives we live. Radical change will be necessary but it will be a quiet
revolution, based on information and engagement.
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| Peter Mcfadyen (centre) tells the room that the answer to climate change lies at the community level. |
Although there
may be wide agreement that climate change is occurring - there is often a
popular disconnect between the phenomena and its consequences for us as
societies and individuals. When the media talk about climate change scepticism,
they are usually referring to people who are uncertain about the reality or
seriousness of climate change. Psychologists
at the University of Illinois have found an
important discrepancy between how the term ‘uncertainty’ is meant in scientific
reports and how it is interpreted by others [1].
This is a problem when the 2013 report of the Intergovernmental Panel for
Climate Change used the term over 2200 times - approximately 1.5 times per page
of the report of the working group alone [2].
A number of the event's questions focused on the need for radical change
in Bristol - including the pedestrianisation of the M32, Oslo’s ban on cars, and a policies on inter-community recycling
and reuse. This struck me - the desire for radical change was
near-unanimous. But, how representative of this is Bristol as a whole?
Many still posses a tunnelled vision and a drawbridge mentality in their
understanding of shifting climates – “it’s not affecting me, why should I
care?” Priorities lie elsewhere: securing basic needs, prosperity, health, etc.
Sadly, climate change doesn’t possess the minds of many.
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| Seoul - pedestrianised one of its motorways. Is this on the cards for Bristol's M32? Image credit Better Nation. |
Climate
change continues to feel distant. A question for science, rather than society.
We have seen the images of Hurricane Sandy and of sea level rise - but these
are from a different world, a great distance from our front doors. The
biggest question of the night for me will continue to plague me for a while
longer: Has Bristol felt climate change enough to cause this behavioural change
on an individual level? And, if not what will it take?
References
[1] David V. Budescu, Stephen Broomell &
Han-Hui Poor (2009). Improving the uncertainty in the report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Psychological
Science, 20(3): 299-308
[2] Stephan
Lewandowsky, Timotyhy Ballard, & Richard D. Pancost (2015). Uncertainty as Knowledge, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal
Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 373(2055).
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This blog is written by Cabot Institute member Ed Atkins, a PhD student at the University of Bristol who studies water scarcity and environmental conflict.
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| Ed Atkins |