Skip to main content

All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group - decarbonisation targets


This month’s All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group (APPCCG) meeting centred on the age old problem of setting decarbonisation targets; the question being, are they useful milestones, or millstones around the necks of the energy industry.

David Kennedy, CCC
Joining the discussion at the meeting were several senior figures in the field, including David Kennedy, chief executive of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), and until recently a frontrunner for the top civil service job at the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). Mr. Kennedy’s appearance at this meeting comes on the heels of an open letter presented by his organisation to Ed Davey, the minister at DECC, urging swifter action on establishing carbon intensity targets. Mr. Kennedy explained his concern that lingering doubt over whether legislative targets will be set dissuades investors in renewable energy technologies, and ultimately hampers efforts to decarbonise the electricity market. 

It’s worth noting that the UK already has binding targets for reducing carbon emissions; indeed, it was the very first country to enact such legislation. However, these targets will ultimately be assessed only in 2050, which on the political timescale is several lifetimes away. Further, the 2008 Energy Act that carries this legislation allows successive governments to exceed carbon emission budgets in the short run, so long as they reduce future budgets accordingly. Without intervening milestones between now and 2050, one can certainly see an incentive for incumbent governments to neglect decarbonisation- procrastination on a national scale.
Opposing this view was David Hone, the climate change advisor for Shell. Mr. Hone explained that UK energy policy should not be viewed as a closed system- indeed, our policy is linked directly to those of our European partners though EU-ETS, the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme. His view was that by enacting further legislation, the government would be unfairly constricting energy producers in the UK. Further, any emissions savings made in the UK could be offset by additional emissions in Europe, as the EU-ETS would simply sell emissions rights elsewhere.

Guy Newey, Policy Exchange
Another significant contribution was made by Guy Newey, Head of Environment and Energy at the think tank Policy Exchange. While Mr. Newey agreed in principle with the idea of bringing forward decisions on decarbonisation targets to 2014, he also made the point that uncertainty on this topic was a significant disincentive to investors, and that a quick and firm resolution to this question was essential; to that end, he could live with an imperfect answer. 

This blog is written by Neeraj Oak, University of Bristol
Neeraj Oak
 

Popular posts from this blog

Converting probabilities between time-intervals

This is the first in an irregular sequence of snippets about some of the slightly more technical aspects of uncertainty and risk assessment.  If you have a slightly more technical question, then please email me and I will try to answer it with a snippet. Suppose that an event has a probability of 0.015 (or 1.5%) of happening at least once in the next five years. Then the probability of the event happening at least once in the next year is 0.015 / 5 = 0.003 (or 0.3%), and the probability of it happening at least once in the next 20 years is 0.015 * 4 = 0.06 (or 6%). Here is the rule for scaling probabilities to different time intervals: if both probabilities (the original one and the new one) are no larger than 0.1 (or 10%), then simply multiply the original probability by the ratio of the new time-interval to the original time-interval, to find the new probability. This rule is an approximation which breaks down if either of the probabilities is greater than 0.1. For exa...

1-in-200 year events

You often read or hear references to the ‘1-in-200 year event’, or ‘200-year event’, or ‘event with a return period of 200 years’. Other popular horizons are 1-in-30 years and 1-in-10,000 years. This term applies to hazards which can occur over a range of magnitudes, like volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis, space weather, and various hydro-meteorological hazards like floods, storms, hot or cold spells, and droughts. ‘1-in-200 years’ refers to a particular magnitude. In floods this might be represented as a contour on a map, showing an area that is inundated. If this contour is labelled as ‘1-in-200 years’ this means that the current rate of floods at least as large as this is 1/200 /yr, or 0.005 /yr. So if your house is inside the contour, there is currently a 0.005 (0.5%) chance of being flooded in the next year, and a 0.025 (2.5%) chance of being flooded in the next five years. The general definition is this: ‘1-in-200 year magnitude is x’ = ‘the current rate for eve...

The Global Goals: How on Earth can geologists make a difference?

Image credit: Geological Society On the 30 th October the Bristol Geology for Global Development (GfGD) group trekked off to London to the grandeur of the Geological Society  for the 3 rd annual GfGD conference . Joel Gill, the director of GfGD, opened the conference with the bold claim: “Probably the world’s first meeting of geologists to discuss the Global Goals.” And it’s not an overstatement. Despite first appearances, geology has a crucially important role to play in many of the 17 goals internationally agreedby World Leaders in September this year . So why aren’t we talking about it? The conference acted as a platform for these discussions, it gave geologists a chance to learn how they can actually contribute to the success of these international development targets and it introduced us to new ways in which geology can help make a difference. . @JoelCGill describing the importance of geology & geologists in meeting UN Sustainable Development Goals #GfGDConf p...