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| Andrew Gouldson |
Prof Andrew Gouldson of
the University of Leeds ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics & Policy,
came to visit the Cabot Institute on 10
October 2013 and gave a talk entitled Towards low carbon, climate resilent cities? The opportunities for and limits of green growth. Here I outline some of the key points made by Andrew and
whether green growth is a viable way to grow the economies of cities whilst
undertaking decarbonisation initiatives, using facts and figures taken from
Andrew’s talk.
The emergence of
green growth
There has been a rapid emergence of green growth over the
last few years but there has also been a big debate around whether green growth
is a valuable way to tackle climate change.
Andrew himself said that responses to climate change should be
scientifically justified, socially supported, technologically possible,
economically viable and politically acceptable.
It could be said that green growth really emerged from the publication
of the infamous Stern Review which changed the political landscape on climate change. The Stern Review, published in 2006, is the
most widely known publication properly costing the impacts of climate change on
the global economy.
Andrew pointed out that Stern’s work looked at the global
scale whereas his research looks at the economic impact of climate change on
the local or ‘city’ scale. Andrew asked
himself is there a similarly compelling economic rationale for action on
climate change in cities?
Why cities?
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| Economics of low carbon cities report. Image from Low Carbon Futures |
There are several good reasons why we should be looking at
economic impacts of climate change on cities.
Cities are home to over half of the world’s population, they are rapidly
growing and 70% of GDP is generated in these big urban spaces. Cities are also major growth poles and
drivers for economic growth. Any climate
change impacts are going to be felt hard by the vast populations that live
there.
With this in mind and the fact that cities account for 70%
of global energy consumption, cities seemed a good place for Andrew and his
team at Leeds to conduct a ‘mini Stern review’ resulting in the publication of
a report called The economics of low carbon cities. The city of Leeds was looked at as a starting
point, but this initial report led to looking at other UK cities and now other
cities around the globe including Kolkata in India.
The economics of low carbon cities report has built a
baseline that develops scenarios based on the continuation of current trends,
for example, water use in the city. Realistic data is collected on costs,
benefits and scope for the deployment of each carbon saving measure in a
city. For example, how many south facing
roofs are there in the city which can be fitted with solar PV panels? How much
would it cost to install the panels? What are the benefits and how much could
be saved on energy bills? This valuable
information can be collected and presented to city councils to show them how
they could decarbonise their city, and how householders could save on energy
bills in the long run.
Case study:
Birmingham
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| Birmingham city, image from Business Desk |
In Birmingham, Andrew suggested that approximately £5.1
billion left the city economy in 2011 just from the payment of the energy
bill. If Birmingham invested £3.6
billion into green growth, this would cut energy bills by £950 million a year
and would pay back investments in only four years. This could potentially cut carbon by almost
11% (read the Birmingham report for more information). Obviously much bigger carbon savings are to
be had with more investment and by tackling the decarbonisation of the National
Grid, increasing energy prices and utilising further cost-effective and
cost-neutral measures within the city.
Looking at energy use in the UK, it has actually decreased
by 15% in the last 4 -5 years. Two
reasons could be the recession and rising energy costs. Recently there have been announcements by
energy companies to increase their energy bills even further,
some by over 8%, and it is estimated that this increase could lead to a 22% cut
in energy usage. This is all good for
decarbonisation targets but not good for energy justice. This is why it is imperative that green
growth receives investment in all UK cities so that having ways to save energy
and produce your own energy are embedded into the structure of cities and
people’s households. This makes
households more resilient to rises in energy prices.
Can we decarbonise
cities in the next 10 – 20 years?
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| Future proofed city? Image from Dornob |
There is definitely potential for green growth in cities
however this will not happen unless institutions innovate and unlock the
potential for decarbonisation and there is governance right from the start of
early stage transitions. It would be
sensible to realise that green growth may only lead to partially decarbonised
and mildly carbon resilient development in cities due to our current political
and economic resources. Andrew suggested
the sobering conclusion that the benefits of green growth are likely to be
eroded by continued growth and by on-going climate change and this is the crux
of the limits to green growth.
Eventually as we transition our cities towards decarbonised
goals, cities will have to be future proofed.
As Andrew pointed out, this means drastically changing their structure,
function and efficiency. It is up to us
to create the future of cities by embracing decarbonisation and encouraging our
local governments to invest in decarbonisation projects such as retrofitting
and changing people’s behaviour. As
Andrew concluded, it’s no good having an A-rated home if there is an F-rated
person living in it!
This blog was written by Amanda Woodman-Hardy, Cabot Institute Administrator, University of Bristol.
Follow @Enviro_Mand
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| Amanda Woodman-Hardy |