The decision by President Trump to withdraw from the Paris
Agreement on Climate Change puts the United States at odds with both science
and global geopolitical norms. The
fundamentals of climate change remain unambiguous: greenhouse gas concentrations
are increasing, they are increasing because of human action, the increase will
cause warming, and that warming creates risks of extreme weather, food crises
and sea level rise. That does not mean that scientists can predict all of the
consequences of global warming, much work needs to be done, but the risks are both profound and clear. Nor do
we know what the best solutions will be - there is need for a robust debate
about the nature, fairness and efficacy of different decarbonisation policies
and technologies as well as the balance of responsibility; the Paris Agreement,
despite its faults with respect to obligation and enforcement, allowed great
flexibility in that regard, which is why nearly every nation on Earth is a
signatory.
Moreover, although climate change affects us all, it will
affect the poorest and most vulnerable the most. They, despite being least
responsible, bear the greatest risks and the greatest burdens. For the
President of the world’s second largest carbon polluter to blatantly disregard such
evidence and injustice, to refuse to even acknowledge the consequences of its actions
and to disengage with this relatively modest and non-binding agreement puts it
odds with the norms of global partnership and human rights. This abrogation of
responsibility is particularly profound because President Trump has also
withdrawn the United States from the Green Climate Fund, which helps the
poorest of the world adapt to the climate change that his actions make more
likely.
And to what end? Other
nations will now assume global leadership, politically, morally and
technologically. It will likely cost
American businesses money, hinder innovation in one of the world’s most dynamic
sectors, and ultimately cost jobs. It will likely undermine the United States’
global stature and diplomatic reach. It is hard to imagine a decision so blatantly
motivated by self-interest while being so profoundly self-harming.
The crucial question now is how we respond. China and the EU have stepped forward, increasing
their voluntary commitments, repudiating President Trump’s decision and assuming
the mantle of leadership. Nations around
the world are following suit, as are cities and states across the United
States. Businesses have re-stated their
commitment to decarbonisation – ironically, the day before Trump’s decision,
shareholders voted that Exxon develop plans compliant with the Paris
Agreement’s targets. In the UK, in the
midst of a general election, parties from across the political spectrum have
responded to Trump’s decision with reactions ranging from disappointment to
outrage. The UK has always provided leadership in this arena, recognising that
climate change is a non-partisan issue, and it is one of the few nations with a
cross party Climate Change Act. It is
vital for both the planet and the UK that these initial comments are followed
by bolder actions and stronger leadership.
Across the world and in the University of Bristol, we are
frustrated with the symbolism of Trump’s actions, his speech’s misrepresentation
of facts, and his decision’s potential to slow climate action. But we also recognise that these actions will
not stop climate action. The responses of local, national and international
leaders, in politics, community groups and businesses, across sectors and
across society show that no person, regardless of his position or his nation,
can stop the energy revolution. It is too deeply embedded in our politics,
economy and ambitions, borne of out of multiple necessities.
Here, in the University of Bristol Cabot Institute, we
remain committed to this challenge. Our
University is committed to carbon
neutrality, ethical and low-carbon procurement and divestment
from fossil fuel-intensive businesses. We have foregrounded Sustainable
Futures in our undergraduate teaching.
And in our research, we are investigating improved energy efficiency in
everything from computer
software, to our homes and our cities. We are exploring how smart technology enables
new forms of transport, community energy and individual action. We are
converting nuclear waste into diamond
batteries with 5000-year lifetimes, we are leading one of the projects under the Natural
Environment Research Council’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction programme and we
have just launched new initiatives in wind, tidal, solar and nuclear energy.
Our ambitions are at all scales, from the local to the
global. We continue to work with our Green Capital partners, with a focus
on building an informed, diverse, inclusive and powerful movement to become a
more sustainable city and region, exemplified by the Green
and Black Ambassadors Initiative. Globally, our projects have been exploring
the impact of conflict, climate change and geological hazards on development
and the environment; the potential for micro-grids to deliver electricity to isolated
communities; new forms of parasite resistance for subsistence farmers; and how
geothermal energy can be harnessed in Ethiopia.
This commitment
to sustainability builds on five decades of research on our environmental
challenges and how to manage them. The Atmospheric Chemistry Research Group makes among the world’s most
accurate measurements of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, and
they have shown how rapidly these compounds are accumulating. They are
committed to refining those measurements and the modelling methods that allow
us to understand why global emissions
change. The Bristol Initiative for the Dynamic Global
Environment
reconstructs past climates and uses those insights to better understand our
future; recent projects are building global collaborations to explore the
controls on Earth’s temperature and monsoons. Our glaciologists study sea level rise; our hydrologists study floods and drought; our social scientists study the injustice of
climate change and its impact on migration and conflict; and our vets and life scientists are exploring how to improve animal welfare and crop yields on a climate disrupted planet.
Our
commitment includes appointing the best and the brightest at understanding
these challenges, including Dr Dann Mitchell who joined the University in
November. As co-ordinator of the largest dedicated
project in the world on the climate impacts of the Paris Agreement (www.happimip.org), he sums up
the Cabot Institute’s collective commitment: “The news of Trump wanting to pull
out is incredibly frustrating. Our results are already suggesting more extreme
events, such as droughts and heat waves, and serious impacts on society, such
as increased human and animal health issues, failures in global crop
distributions and bleaching of our coral reefs. I am frustrated that Trump
continues to ignore the scientific evidence that has been recognised by his
global peers, but that will not dissuade us from doing all we can to understand
climate risks… and prevent them.’
Article by Professor Rich Pancost,
Director of the University of Bristol Cabot Institute
Professor of Biogeochemistry
Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Scholar