Watching the film of a self-confessed reformed climate
skeptic with members of parliament and Lords isn’t how I usually spend my
Tuesday morning, but it was what I found myself doing last Tuesday. The
occasion for this unlikely meeting was a special screening of photographer James Balog’s film Chasing Ice for the All Party Parliamentary Climate
Change Group (APPCCG), of which the Cabot Institute is a member. The
film, which documents the work of the photographer’s Extreme Ice Survey, follows James and his team
on a journey to record the retreat of 13 glaciers across the globe continuously
over a two year period.
I won’t spoil the film too much (and strongly encourage
you to see it if you can) but suffice to say placing 28 cameras at locations across
the globe in some of the most difficult terrains and extremes of temperature is
a challenge for both the men and technology involved. The aim to take one photo
every hour of daylight for two years solid was massively ambitious, but worth
the effort and the pain, as the result is a spectacular demonstration of how
our hydrocarbon based economy is changing the face of the planet.
“What the public need [...] is something spectacular that grabs people in the gut”James Balog
James’s desire was to capture what is perhaps the most
visually compelling effect of climate change. Retreating glaciers are a clear
indication of the effects of rising global temperatures and one (despite the
attempts by some to highlight the minority which are advancing) which is hard
to ignore. Of course the glaciers highlighted in the film are only a small
proportion of global land ice (which has the power to raise sea level) but can
be seen as an important “canary in the coal mine” demonstrating the processes
which are happening in the really large ice sheets too. Over the last twenty
years, mass loss of ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are estimated to
have contributed 0.59 ±0.20 mm yr -1 to global sea level rise (Shepard et al., 2012). While that
may seem like a small number, the effects over the next century could be
dramatic, especially as, if last year’s unprecedented Greenland melt are
anything to go by (Tedesco et
al., 2012), this rate could be accelerating.
“If you had an abscess in your tooth, would you go to
dentist after dentist until one told you not to pull it out?”
James
Balog
Before the screening there was an introduction to the film by
Chris Shearlock, Sustainable Development Manager at The Co-operative Group who
explained the Co-op’s involvement in the film, and their outlook on sustainable
and ethical investment. The Co-op has invested £1billion in renewable energy,
and he estimated that they have refused £300 million of investment
opportunities in hydrocarbon extraction, and so when following the film, the
questioning turned to exploitation of the soon-to-be
summer sea ice free arctic the voice of the Co-operative was clear – that they
will not be investing in hydrocarbon extraction. That question was dealt with
very differently by Chris Barton, Head of
International & Domestic Energy Security at the DECC who put
forward the UK government’s current position that whilst we should reduce
demand, in order to maintain cheap oil and gas for UK consumers “sensible” and
regulated extraction in the arctic should be a priority for UK plc. What to do
with the resulting CO2 emissions in order to hit the < 2 °C target? Well in
Chris Barton’s mind carbon
capture and storage will come to the rescue.
The debate moved to whether, as we are not an Arctic state,
we can do anything about the regulation of commercial activity in a basin which
is a combination of the territorial water of eight nation states, and open
ocean controlled under the international law of the sea. The DECC
view seemed to be that it is largely none of our business and out of our
control, but interestingly Jane Rumble, Head of Polar Regions Unit
at the FCO, had a different perspective. She suggested that we should
be (and can be) working constructively through the Arctic Council, towards a
similar regulatory framework to that which controls the other end of the Earth
via the Antarctic Treaty, and by
influencing Canada (one of the eight bordering nation states) through the commonwealth.
Colin Manson, Director of Manson Oceanographic Consultancy and member
of the IMO Polar Code working group spoke of the frustration of many in the
shipping industry that talks on
the Polar Code had stalled and encouraged UK intervention as a broker. He also
pointed that one little talked about impacts of the opening up of the Northern
Passage would be dramatic reductions in the time and fuel needed for bulk cargo
shipping from the far east to Europe. With the representative routing of
Shanghai – Rotterdam dropping to 5 weeks, vs the current 8 week route via the
Indian Ocean. Colin, along I think with many in the audience, hoped thoughtful
regulation and consideration of the impacts of this increased shipping through
the arctic would come before it was too late.
Julia Slingo OBE, Chief Scientist at the Met Office closed proceedings with an
impassioned plea to take care with the interpretation of our current generation
of climate models following questions from the audience, and highlighted the
importance of sustained development of what are our best hopes for accurate and
precise predictions of future climate change.
All in all it was a fascinating day, and I was grateful to be
exposed to a beautiful film, as well as an insight into the minds of those at
the policy end of climate change science.
“We think we need new oil and gas production whether
people like it or not”
Chris
Barton, Head of International & Domestic Energy Security, DECC
This blog is by Dr Marcus Badger (Chemistry) at the University of Bristol. He writes about the APPCCG meeting held on 5 March 2013.
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| Marcus Badger |